Modelling Dike Breach Risk in Wallonia: PLOTO Use Case C
Within the PLOTO Project, Use Case 3 focused on flood risk modelling in Wallonia, along the Meuse and the Albert Canal, an area characterised by dense urbanisation and critical infrastructure.
The region includes residential zones, health facilities, police stations, schools and industrial sites. During the 2021 floods, several dikes nearly overtopped, highlighting the urgency of strengthening flood preparedness. The pilot therefore concentrated on the west dike of the Albert Canal, assessing the consequences of a potential breach.
Dike Breach Modelling and Scenario Analysis
The team applied physics-based breach modelling (DLBreach+) coupled with fast 2D hydrodynamic simulations to realistically predict catastrophic flood events. This approach enabled detailed mapping of flood extent, maximum water depth and time of arrival in case of dike failure.
Multiple “what-if” and short-term operational scenarios were tested. The simulations demonstrated that even small operational changes — such as shifting dam management decisions by a few hours — could significantly alter flood timing and spatial extent. These findings confirmed that operational decision-making plays a decisive role during extreme events.
The Wallonia pilot confirmed that flood risk from dike breaching in the Meuse–Albert Canal region was real, immediate and intensifying due to climate change. It demonstrated that multi-scenario modelling — combining short-term forecasting and forward-looking “what-if” analyses — was essential for emergency management, infrastructure planning and long-term climate adaptation.
The PLOTO platform successfully bridged the gap between research and operational flood risk management, evolving from a forecasting tool into a resilience-building instrument. The regional authority Service Public de Wallonie Mobilité et Infrastructures (SPW-MI), responsible for managing the canal, expressed interest in reusing key outputs such as time-of-arrival and maximum water-depth maps within the framework of new Belgian flood regulations.[1]
Use Case 3 ultimately demonstrated how advanced modelling and integrated decision-support tools could enhance preparedness and protect densely populated inland waterway regions against future extreme events.
This playlist features simulation footage from the PLOTO Project, showing a breach at location No. 3 along the Albert Canal. Footage courtesy of the University of Liège.
[1] Walloon Government, Decree of 22 February 2024 relating to the operational safety of reservoir dams, adopted by the Parlement wallon (Session 2023–2024, Parliamentary Documents 1571 (2023–2024), Nos. 1, 1ter–9; Plenary sitting of 21 February 2024))
